Jaguares 1–0 Union Magdalena: Result & Stats

Jaguares

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Union Magdalena

H. Mojica 56'

7/13/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 1Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Jaguares50%

×Draw28%

Union Magdalena22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchUnion Magdalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.79

Jaguares

1.35

Union Magdalena

0.79

Jaguares creates 71% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 83 away

1.04

creates per match

0.63

0.95

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Jaguares

1.04

Union Magdalena

0.63

allows per match

Jaguares

0.95

Union Magdalena

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Union Magdalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

78%

Jaguares or Union Magdalena

72%

Draw or Union Magdalena

50%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

24%

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

74%

Jaguares 2+ goals

39%

Jaguares 3+ goals

15%

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

55%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

19%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

70%

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.95 · 136 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.67 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.04 + Union Magdalena defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.35

Union Magdalena attack 0.63 + Jaguares defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jaguares scores more

50%

level

28%

Union Magdalena scores more

22%

Jaguares at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Mojica

Jaguares · M

7.7

Match Events

35'

41'

56'

67'

72'

Y. Mosquera← S. Rentería

77'

77'

78'

85'

88'

90'

90+2'

Y. Anchico← H. Mojica

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JaguaresUnion

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots8

3Corners1

16Fouls28

Shots

11Total Shots8

3On Target1

6Off Target7

2Blocked0

5Inside Box5

6Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

353Total Passes452

267Accurate Passes369

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls28

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2

Primera A: Jaguares 1–0 Union Magdalena

Jaguares beat Union Magdalena 1-0 in Primera A on July 13, 2019.

Goals: H. Mojica (56').

Union Magdalena controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria in Monteria.

Jaguares vs Union Magdalena — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Jaguares 1–0 Union Magdalena