Union Magdalena 1–1 Independiente Medellin

Union Magdalena

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Independiente Medellin

C. Subero 12'

G. Cano 45+1'

8/3/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 4Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Union Magdalena37%

×Draw27%

Independiente Medellin35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union MagdalenaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.19

Union Magdalena

1.24

Independiente Medellin

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 183 away

1.14

creates per match

1.15

1.23

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Union Magdalena

1.14

Independiente Medellin

1.15

allows per match

Union Magdalena

1.23

Independiente Medellin

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw

65%

Union Magdalena or Independiente Medellin

73%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

63%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

16%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

71%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

35%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

13%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

70%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

33%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

52%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.23 · 81 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.34 · 183 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.14 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.24

Independiente Medellin attack 1.15 + Union Magdalena defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Union Magdalena scores more

37%

level

27%

Independiente Medellin scores more

35%

Union Magdalena at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Ricaurte

Independiente Medellin · M

7.9

Match Events

12'

13'

24'

42'

45+1'

46'

D. Quiñónes← J. Cuesta

53'

Abel Aguilar

53'

German Cano

58'

R. Hinojosa← L. Arias

62'

D. Arias← W. López

69'

L. Mosquera← H. Luna

70'

D. Herazo← B. Castrillón

72'

F. Cantillo← A. Aguilar

84'

Diego Arias

90'

Roberto Hinojosa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionIndependiente

Overview

47%Possession53%

14Total Shots12

6Corners5

27Fouls22

Shots

14Total Shots12

3On Target4

7Off Target6

4Blocked2

8Inside Box6

6Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

353Total Passes391

283Accurate Passes319

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

27Fouls22

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2