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Independiente Medellin vs Union Magdalena — Primera A 2018

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
5/18/2023Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 20Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Independiente Medellin59%
×Draw25%
Union Magdalena16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.62
Union Magdalena
0.72

Independiente Medellin creates 125% more chances

Season form · 183 home / 83 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.57
Union Magdalena
0.63

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.82
Union Magdalena
1.67

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Union Magdalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
84%
Independiente Medellin or Union Magdalena
75%
Draw or Union Magdalena
41%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
32%
Union Magdalena wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
80%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
48%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
22%
Union Magdalena 1+ goals
51%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
16%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
78%
Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.82 · 183 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.67 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.57 + Union Magdalena defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

Union Magdalena attack 0.63 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
59%
level
25%
Union Magdalena scores more
16%

Independiente Medellin at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Union Magdalena

Independiente Medellin beat Union Magdalena 4-0 in Primera A on May 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.