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Union Magdalena vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2024

Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
I. Camargo 43'
G. Torres 20'
8/26/2023Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 8Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Union Magdalena44%
×Draw27%
Alianza Valledupar29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Magdalena
1.37
Alianza Valledupar
1.06

Union Magdalena creates 29% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 53 away

creates per match

Union Magdalena
1.25
Alianza Valledupar
0.70

allows per match

Union Magdalena
1.42
Alianza Valledupar
1.49

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par
Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw
71%
Union Magdalena or Alianza Valledupar
73%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
56%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+
21%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals
75%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
40%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
16%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
65%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
29%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
60%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.49 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.25 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.37

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.70 + Union Magdalena defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Union Magdalena scores more
44%
level
27%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
29%

Union Magdalena at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
J. AnguloUnion MagdalenaUnion Magdalena · D
8.2

Match Events

20'
G. Torres↳ F. Cantillo
43'
I. Camargo↳ J. Angulo
45+2'
Freddy Flórez
46'
A. Rentería← M. Gil
49'
R. Lora← É. Muníve
61'
S. Orozco← J. Castillo
61'
K. Torres← F. Flórez
70'
G. Baier← J. Mercado
70'
R. Blanco← I. Camargo
80'
C. Sención← N. Gil
81'
Alain Guerrero
81'
Santiago Orozco
83'
J. Muñoz← S. Acosta
89'
Leonardo Saldaña

Possession

53%Union

Shots

19Union

Pass accuracy

52%Union

Statistics

UnionAlianza
Overview
53%Possession47%
19Total Shots9
8Corners5
15Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots9
6On Target1
8Off Target4
5Blocked4
10Inside Box6
9Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
382Total Passes337
307Accurate Passes248
80%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Primera A: Union Magdalena 2–0 Alianza Valledupar

Union Magdalena beat Alianza Valledupar 2-0 in Primera A on August 26, 2023.

Goals: G. Torres (20'), I. Camargo (43').

Union Magdalena controlled possession (53%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.