Union La Calera 2–3 O'Higgins: Result & Stats

Union La Calera

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

O'Higgins

D. Ulloa 78'

W. Ponce 76'

Y. Leiva 89'

D. Buonanotte 68'

B. Rabello 20'

4/7/2024

Primera División · Round 7Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Union La Calera40%

×Draw27%

O'Higgins33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union La CaleraExpected goals in this matchO'Higgins

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.21

Union La Calera

1.36

O'Higgins

1.21

Union La Calera creates 12% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 114 away

1.35

creates per match

1.21

1.20

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Union La Calera

1.35

O'Higgins

1.21

allows per match

Union La Calera

1.20

O'Higgins

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union La Calera+0.00on par

O'Higgins+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

O'Higgins →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw

67%

Union La Calera or O'Higgins

73%

Draw or O'Higgins

60%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+

19%

O'Higgins wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals

74%

Union La Calera 2+ goals

39%

Union La Calera 3+ goals

16%

O'Higgins 1+ goals

70%

O'Higgins 2+ goals

34%

O'Higgins 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)

55%

O'Higgins (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 120 matches

O'Higgins away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 1.35 + O'Higgins defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.36

O'Higgins attack 1.21 + Union La Calera defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Union La Calera scores more

40%

level

27%

O'Higgins scores more

33%

Union La Calera at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Y. Leiva

O'Higgins · M

7.5

Match Events

13'

Esteban Calderon

20'

B. Rabello↳ A. Castillo

22'

Bryan RabelloGoal confirmed

28'

Ezequiel Parnisiari

45+3'

Diego Ulloa

46'

D. Buonanotte← M. Sarrafiore

56'

Nicolás Ferreyra

59'

Nicolás Ferreyra

59'

Nicolás Ferreyra

63'

F. Soldano← R. Huerta

63'

C. Auzqui← E. Calderón

68'

D. Buonanotte↳ C. Auzqui

72'

M. Muñoz← M. Cavalleri

72'

B. Romo← L. Aued

72'

74'

76'

78'

80'

81'

83'

86'

86'

89'

90+5'

90'

B. Torrealba← M. González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionO'Higgins

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots9

7Corners3

12Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots9

5On Target4

6Off Target1

1Blocked4

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

289Total Passes352

185Accurate Passes255

64%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls12

6Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards0

1Offsides4