Union La Calera 2–1 Nublense: Result & Stats

Union La Calera

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nublense

C. Pérez 73'

E. Gigliotti 66'

P. Sánchez 55'

5/5/2024

Primera División · Round 11Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Union La Calera42%

×Draw26%

Nublense32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union La CaleraExpected goals in this matchNublense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.23

Union La Calera

1.46

Nublense

1.23

Union La Calera creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.15

creates per match

1.30

1.17

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Union La Calera

1.15

Nublense

1.30

allows per match

Union La Calera

1.17

Nublense

1.78

+0.68scores more than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Union La Calera+0.68scores more

Nublense-0.39scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

Nublense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw

68%

Union La Calera or Nublense

74%

Draw or Nublense

58%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+

20%

Nublense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals

77%

Union La Calera 2+ goals

43%

Union La Calera 3+ goals

18%

Nublense 1+ goals

71%

Nublense 2+ goals

35%

Nublense 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)

57%

Nublense (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Nublense away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.78 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 1.15 + Nublense defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nublense attack 1.30 + Union La Calera defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Union La Calera scores more

42%

level

26%

Nublense scores more

32%

Union La Calera at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Pérez

Union La Calera · M

8.0

Match Events

16'

E. Gigliotti← G. Hauche

30'

Jovany CampusanoCard upgrade

31'

36'

50'

55'

61'

I. Rozas← F. Moya

66'

E. Gigliotti↳ M. Cavalleri

72'

A. Valdés← I. Sosa

72'

B. Oyarzo← G. Graciani

73'

C. Pérez↳ L. Aued

77'

Rafael Caroca

81'

D. Fiamengo← R. Rebolledo

81'

W. Ponce← A. Encinas

83'

M. Plaza← L. Reyes

83'

E. Herrera← P. Sánchez

89'

M. Muñoz← M. Cavalleri

90'

Luciano Aued

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionNublense

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots10

2Corners7

11Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots10

5On Target5

5Off Target2

0Blocked3

5Inside Box9

5Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

394Total Passes324

311Accurate Passes238

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3

Primera División: Union La Calera 2–1 Nublense

Union La Calera beat Nublense 2-1 in Primera División on May 5, 2024.

Goals: P. Sánchez (55'), E. Gigliotti (66'), C. Pérez (73').

Union La Calera controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in La Calera.

Union La Calera vs Nublense — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Union La Calera 2–1 Nublense