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Union La Calera vs Colo Colo — Primera División 2018

Union La Calera
Union La Calera
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Colo Colo
Colo Colo
10/16/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 25Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Union La Calera36%
×Draw27%
Colo Colo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union La Calera
1.26
Colo Colo
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 129 home / 126 away

creates per match

Union La Calera
1.38
Colo Colo
1.35

allows per match

Union La Calera
1.19
Colo Colo
1.14

finishing

Union La Calera+0.00on par
Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

Colo Colo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw
63%
Union La Calera or Colo Colo
73%
Draw or Colo Colo
64%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+
16%
Colo Colo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals
72%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
36%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
13%
Colo Colo 1+ goals
72%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
36%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)
50%
Colo Colo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.14 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 1.38 + Colo Colo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Colo Colo attack 1.35 + Union La Calera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Union La Calera scores more
36%
level
27%
Colo Colo scores more
37%

Colo Colo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Union La Calera 0–1 Colo Colo

Colo Colo beat Union La Calera 1-0 in Primera División on October 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in La Calera.