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Union La Calera vs Alianza Valledupar — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Union La Calera
Union La Calera
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
5/31/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union La Calera31%
×Draw33%
Alianza Valledupar36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union La Calera
0.86
Alianza Valledupar
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Union La Calera
0.73
Alianza Valledupar
1.33

allows per match

Union La Calera
0.55
Alianza Valledupar
1.00

finishing

Union La Calera+0.00on par
Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw
64%
Union La Calera or Alianza Valledupar
67%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
69%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+
11%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals
58%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
21%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
6%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
61%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
24%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)
47%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 0.73 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.33 + Union La Calera defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Union La Calera scores more
31%
level
33%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
36%

Alianza Valledupar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Union La Calera 0 – 1 Alianza Valledupar

Alianza Valledupar beat Union La Calera 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.