Union La Calera vs A. Italiano — Primera División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 6+ matches
Union La Calera36%
A. Italiano36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 6 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Union La Calera ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Union La Calera at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches
A. Italiano away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Union La Calera attack 1.15 + A. Italiano defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23
A. Italiano attack 1.29 + Union La Calera defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Union La Calera at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Coquimbo Unido
U. Catolica
Colo Colo
Universidad de Chile
O'Higgins
Huachipato
Palestino
Deportes Limache
NublenseA. Italiano
Cobresal
Everton de Vina
D. La SerenaUnion La Calera
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Iquique
Concepción
Union EspanolaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Union La Calera host A. Italiano on Friday, 27 February 2026 at 23:30. The match is part of the Primera División 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Union La Calera vs A. Italiano
Union La Calera beat A. Italiano 3-0 in Primera División on February 27, 2026.
Goals: S. Saez (23', 72' pen), K. Mendez (90').
Union La Calera controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 14.
The match was played at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan in La Calera.