Union La Calera 2–1 A. Italiano: Result & Stats

Union La Calera

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

A. Italiano

D. Romero 80'

E. Ferrario 53'

N. Orellana 22'

9/2/2024

Primera División · Round 23Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Union La Calera35%

×Draw27%

A. Italiano38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union La CaleraExpected goals in this matchA. Italiano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.27

Union La Calera

1.21

A. Italiano

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.15

creates per match

1.38

1.17

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Union La Calera

1.15

A. Italiano

1.38

allows per match

Union La Calera

1.17

A. Italiano

1.27

+0.68scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Union La Calera+0.68scores more

A. Italiano-0.02on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

A. Italiano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw

62%

Union La Calera or A. Italiano

73%

Draw or A. Italiano

65%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+

15%

A. Italiano wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals

70%

Union La Calera 2+ goals

34%

Union La Calera 3+ goals

12%

A. Italiano 1+ goals

72%

A. Italiano 2+ goals

36%

A. Italiano 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)

48%

A. Italiano (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

A. Italiano away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 1.15 + A. Italiano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

A. Italiano attack 1.38 + Union La Calera defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Union La Calera scores more

35%

level

27%

A. Italiano scores more

38%

A. Italiano at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "A. Italiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

E. Ferrario

Union La Calera · D

8.0

Match Events

17'

Nahuel Brunet

22'

N. Orellana↳ N. Fernández

26'

29'

44'

46'

46'

E. Parnisari← A. Henríquez

53'

E. Ferrario

62'

P. Guajardo← I. Jeraldino

66'

Pablo Parra

70'

W. Ponce← F. Soldano

70'

E. Valencia← P. Parra

80'

D. Romero↳ R. Rebolledo

83'

A. Riep← N. Orellana

83'

N. Bazán← G. Ortiz

84'

M. Muñoz← M. Cavalleri

86'

C. Villanueva← M. Collao

90'

Jorge Peña

90+6'

Ezequiel Parnisiari

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionA.

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots13

0.94Expected Goals (xG)1.73

9Corners4

10Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target3

3Off Target7

3Blocked3

6Inside Box11

3Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

302Total Passes390

215Accurate Passes291

71%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3