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Union Klosterfelde vs Tennis Borussia — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Union Klosterfelde
Union Klosterfelde
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Tennis Borussia
Tennis Borussia
8/1/2025Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 1Sportplatz an der Mühlenstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Union Klosterfelde54%
×Draw21%
Tennis Borussia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Klosterfelde
2.21
Tennis Borussia
1.47

Union Klosterfelde creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Union Klosterfelde
2.20
Tennis Borussia
1.60

allows per match

Union Klosterfelde
1.33
Tennis Borussia
2.22

finishing

Union Klosterfelde+0.00on par
Tennis Borussia+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Klosterfelde ↓

Tennis Borussia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Union Klosterfelde or draw
75%
Union Klosterfelde or Tennis Borussia
79%
Draw or Tennis Borussia
46%

Winning margin

Union Klosterfelde wins by 2+
33%
Tennis Borussia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Union Klosterfelde 1+ goals
89%
Union Klosterfelde 2+ goals
65%
Union Klosterfelde 3+ goals
38%
Tennis Borussia 1+ goals
77%
Tennis Borussia 2+ goals
43%
Tennis Borussia 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Union Klosterfelde (draw refunded)
68%
Tennis Borussia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Klosterfelde at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Tennis Borussia away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.22 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Klosterfelde attack 2.20 + Tennis Borussia defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.21

Tennis Borussia attack 1.60 + Union Klosterfelde defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Union Klosterfelde scores more
54%
level
21%
Tennis Borussia scores more
25%

Union Klosterfelde at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Union Klosterfelde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Union Klosterfelde 1–3 Tennis Borussia

Tennis Borussia beat Union Klosterfelde 3-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 1, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz an der Mühlenstraße in Wandlitz.