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Union Klosterfelde vs BFC Dynamo — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Union Klosterfelde
Union Klosterfelde
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
BFC Dynamo
BFC Dynamo
R. Kuhn 75'
I. Brando 41'
M. Ramoth 90'
L. Fritzsche 61'
R. Dadashov 21'
A. Amadou 14'
1/20/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Union Klosterfelde15%
×Draw15%
BFC Dynamo71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Klosterfelde
1.43
BFC Dynamo
3.17

BFC Dynamo creates 122% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Union Klosterfelde
2.00
BFC Dynamo
3.14

allows per match

Union Klosterfelde
3.20
BFC Dynamo
0.86

finishing

Union Klosterfelde+0.00on par
BFC Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Klosterfelde ↓

BFC Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Union Klosterfelde or draw
29%
Union Klosterfelde or BFC Dynamo
85%
Draw or BFC Dynamo
85%

Winning margin

Union Klosterfelde wins by 2+
6%
BFC Dynamo wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Union Klosterfelde 1+ goals
76%
Union Klosterfelde 2+ goals
42%
Union Klosterfelde 3+ goals
17%
BFC Dynamo 1+ goals
96%
BFC Dynamo 2+ goals
82%
BFC Dynamo 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Union Klosterfelde (draw refunded)
17%
BFC Dynamo (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Klosterfelde at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

BFC Dynamo away — creates 3.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Klosterfelde attack 2.00 + BFC Dynamo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

BFC Dynamo attack 3.14 + Union Klosterfelde defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Union Klosterfelde scores more
15%
level
15%
BFC Dynamo scores more
71%

BFC Dynamo at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "BFC Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
A. Amadou
21'
R. Dadashov
41'
I. Brando
61'
L. Fritzsche
75'
R. Kuhn
90'
M. Ramoth

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Klosterfelde vs BFC Dynamo

BFC Dynamo beat Union Klosterfelde 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2026.

Goals: A. Amadou (14'), R. Dadashov (21'), I. Brando (41'), L. Fritzsche (61'), R. Kuhn (75'), M. Ramoth (90').