Union Kayl-Tétange 4–4 Union Titus Petange

Union Kayl-Tétange

AET

4 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Union Titus Petange

10/3/2021

Cup · 2nd RoundStade Victor Marchal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Kayl-Tétange13%

×Draw13%

Union Titus Petange74%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Kayl-TétangeExpected goals in this matchUnion Titus Petange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

3.50

Union Kayl-Tétange

1.48

Union Titus Petange

3.50

Union Titus Petange creates 136% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

1.67

creates per match

3.00

4.00

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Union Kayl-Tétange

1.67

Union Titus Petange

3.00

allows per match

Union Kayl-Tétange

4.00

Union Titus Petange

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Kayl-Tétange+0.00on par

Union Titus Petange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Kayl-Tétange ↓

Union Titus Petange →

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–35%

0–45%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Union Kayl-Tétange or draw

26%

Union Kayl-Tétange or Union Titus Petange

87%

Draw or Union Titus Petange

87%

Winning margin

Union Kayl-Tétange wins by 2+

Union Titus Petange wins by 2+

55%

Team goals

Union Kayl-Tétange 1+ goals

77%

Union Kayl-Tétange 2+ goals

43%

Union Kayl-Tétange 3+ goals

19%

Union Titus Petange 1+ goals

97%

Union Titus Petange 2+ goals

85%

Union Titus Petange 3+ goals

66%

Draw no bet

Union Kayl-Tétange (draw refunded)

15%

Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Union Kayl-Tétange at home — creates 1.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Union Titus Petange away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Union Kayl-Tétange attack 1.67 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

Union Titus Petange attack 3.00 + Union Kayl-Tétange defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

Union Kayl-Tétange scores more

13%

level

13%

Union Titus Petange scores more

74%

Union Titus Petange at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Union Titus Petange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff