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Union Kayl-Tétange vs UNA Strassen — Cup 2020

Union Kayl-Tétange
Union Kayl-Tétange
FT
0 – 8
UNA Strassen
UNA Strassenadvanced
11/10/2024CupCup · Round of 32Stade Victor Marchal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Kayl-Tétange9%
×Draw11%
UNA Strassen80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Kayl-Tétange
1.41
UNA Strassen
4.04

UNA Strassen creates 187% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Union Kayl-Tétange
1.67
UNA Strassen
4.08

allows per match

Union Kayl-Tétange
4.00
UNA Strassen
1.15

finishing

Union Kayl-Tétange+0.00on par
UNA Strassen+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Kayl-Tétange ↓

UNA Strassen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

Union Kayl-Tétange or draw
20%
Union Kayl-Tétange or UNA Strassen
89%
Draw or UNA Strassen
91%

Winning margin

Union Kayl-Tétange wins by 2+
3%
UNA Strassen wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

Union Kayl-Tétange 1+ goals
76%
Union Kayl-Tétange 2+ goals
41%
Union Kayl-Tétange 3+ goals
17%
UNA Strassen 1+ goals
98%
UNA Strassen 2+ goals
90%
UNA Strassen 3+ goals
74%

Draw no bet

Union Kayl-Tétange (draw refunded)
10%
UNA Strassen (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Kayl-Tétange at home — creates 1.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

UNA Strassen away — creates 4.08, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Kayl-Tétange attack 1.67 + UNA Strassen defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.41

UNA Strassen attack 4.08 + Union Kayl-Tétange defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 4.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Union Kayl-Tétange scores more
9%
level
11%
UNA Strassen scores more
80%

UNA Strassen at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "UNA Strassen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Union Kayl-Tétange 0–8 UNA Strassen

UNA Strassen beat Union Kayl-Tétange 8-0 in Cup on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Victor Marchal in Tétange.