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Union Kayl-Tétange vs Avenir Beggen — Cup 2020

Union Kayl-Tétange
Union Kayl-Tétange
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Avenir Beggen
Avenir Beggen
10/6/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Victor Marchal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Kayl-Tétange22%
×Draw17%
Avenir Beggen61%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Kayl-Tétange
1.83
Avenir Beggen
3.00

Avenir Beggen creates 64% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Union Kayl-Tétange
1.67
Avenir Beggen
2.00

allows per match

Union Kayl-Tétange
4.00
Avenir Beggen
2.00

finishing

Union Kayl-Tétange+0.00on par
Avenir Beggen+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Kayl-Tétange ↓

Avenir Beggen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Union Kayl-Tétange or draw
39%
Union Kayl-Tétange or Avenir Beggen
83%
Draw or Avenir Beggen
78%

Winning margin

Union Kayl-Tétange wins by 2+
11%
Avenir Beggen wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Union Kayl-Tétange 1+ goals
84%
Union Kayl-Tétange 2+ goals
54%
Union Kayl-Tétange 3+ goals
28%
Avenir Beggen 1+ goals
95%
Avenir Beggen 2+ goals
79%
Avenir Beggen 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Union Kayl-Tétange (draw refunded)
27%
Avenir Beggen (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Kayl-Tétange at home — creates 1.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Avenir Beggen away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Kayl-Tétange attack 1.67 + Avenir Beggen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Avenir Beggen attack 2.00 + Union Kayl-Tétange defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Union Kayl-Tétange scores more
22%
level
17%
Avenir Beggen scores more
61%

Avenir Beggen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Avenir Beggen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Union Kayl-Tétange 2–0 Avenir Beggen

Union Kayl-Tétange beat Avenir Beggen 2-0 in Cup on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Victor Marchal in Tétange.