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Union Innsbruck vs Natters — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Union Innsbruck
Union Innsbruck
FT
2 – 3
Natters
Natters
8/21/2021Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 5Sportplatz Fenner Areal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Union Innsbruck43%
×Draw20%
Natters36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Innsbruck
2.17
Natters
1.98

Union Innsbruck creates 10% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

creates per match

Union Innsbruck
2.16
Natters
1.55

allows per match

Union Innsbruck
2.41
Natters
2.18

finishing

Union Innsbruck+0.00on par
Natters+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Innsbruck ↓

Natters →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Union Innsbruck or draw
64%
Union Innsbruck or Natters
80%
Draw or Natters
57%

Winning margin

Union Innsbruck wins by 2+
25%
Natters wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Union Innsbruck 1+ goals
89%
Union Innsbruck 2+ goals
64%
Union Innsbruck 3+ goals
36%
Natters 1+ goals
86%
Natters 2+ goals
59%
Natters 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Union Innsbruck (draw refunded)
54%
Natters (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Innsbruck at home — creates 2.16, concedes 2.41 · 44 matches

Natters away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Innsbruck attack 2.16 + Natters defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.17

Natters attack 1.55 + Union Innsbruck defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Union Innsbruck scores more
43%
level
20%
Natters scores more
36%

Union Innsbruck at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Union Innsbruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Innsbruck vs Natters

Natters beat Union Innsbruck 3-2 in Landesliga - Tirol on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Fenner Areal in Innsbruck.