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Union Huaral vs Union Comercio — Segunda División 2018

Union Huaral
Union Huaral
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Union Comercio
Union Comercio
12/11/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Sports Complex Videna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Union Huaral40%
×Draw26%
Union Comercio33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Huaral
1.37
Union Comercio
1.22

Union Huaral creates 12% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 45 away

creates per match

Union Huaral
1.63
Union Comercio
1.33

allows per match

Union Huaral
1.10
Union Comercio
1.11

finishing

Union Huaral+0.00on par
Union Comercio+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Huaral ↓

Union Comercio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Union Huaral or draw
67%
Union Huaral or Union Comercio
74%
Draw or Union Comercio
60%

Winning margin

Union Huaral wins by 2+
19%
Union Comercio wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Union Huaral 1+ goals
75%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
40%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
16%
Union Comercio 1+ goals
70%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
34%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Union Huaral (draw refunded)
55%
Union Comercio (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Huaral at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Union Comercio away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Huaral attack 1.63 + Union Comercio defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Union Comercio attack 1.33 + Union Huaral defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Union Huaral scores more
40%
level
26%
Union Comercio scores more
33%

Union Huaral at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Union Huaral 2–1 Union Comercio

Union Huaral beat Union Comercio 2-1 in Segunda División on December 11, 2020.

The match was played at Sports Complex Videna in Lima.