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Union Huaral vs San Marcos — Segunda División 2018

Union Huaral
Union Huaral
CANC
00:00
San Marcos
San Marcos
6/9/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Union Huaral55%
×Draw24%
San Marcos21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Huaral
1.73
San Marcos
0.96

Union Huaral creates 80% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 22 away

creates per match

Union Huaral
1.63
San Marcos
0.82

allows per match

Union Huaral
1.10
San Marcos
1.82

finishing

Union Huaral+0.00on par
San Marcos+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Huaral ↓

San Marcos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Union Huaral or draw
79%
Union Huaral or San Marcos
76%
Draw or San Marcos
45%

Winning margin

Union Huaral wins by 2+
31%
San Marcos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Union Huaral 1+ goals
82%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
52%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
25%
San Marcos 1+ goals
62%
San Marcos 2+ goals
25%
San Marcos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Union Huaral (draw refunded)
73%
San Marcos (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Huaral at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

San Marcos away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Huaral attack 1.63 + San Marcos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

San Marcos attack 0.82 + Union Huaral defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Union Huaral scores more
55%
level
24%
San Marcos scores more
21%

Union Huaral at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Union Huaral host San Marcos

June 9, 2024: Union Huaral take on San Marcos in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.