Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Union Huaral vs LOS Caimanes — Segunda División 2018

Union Huaral
Union Huaral
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
LOS Caimanes
LOS Caimanes
4/22/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3Estadio Municipal Julio Lores Colán (Huaral)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Union Huaral63%
×Draw19%
LOS Caimanes18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Huaral
2.29
LOS Caimanes
1.13

Union Huaral creates 103% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 25 away

creates per match

Union Huaral
1.63
LOS Caimanes
1.16

allows per match

Union Huaral
1.10
LOS Caimanes
2.96

finishing

Union Huaral+0.00on par
LOS Caimanes+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Huaral ↓

LOS Caimanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Union Huaral or draw
82%
Union Huaral or LOS Caimanes
81%
Draw or LOS Caimanes
37%

Winning margin

Union Huaral wins by 2+
40%
LOS Caimanes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Union Huaral 1+ goals
90%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
66%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
40%
LOS Caimanes 1+ goals
68%
LOS Caimanes 2+ goals
31%
LOS Caimanes 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Union Huaral (draw refunded)
78%
LOS Caimanes (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Huaral at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

LOS Caimanes away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Huaral attack 1.63 + LOS Caimanes defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.29

LOS Caimanes attack 1.16 + Union Huaral defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Union Huaral scores more
63%
level
19%
LOS Caimanes scores more
18%

Union Huaral at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Union Huaral 2 – 1 LOS Caimanes

Union Huaral beat LOS Caimanes 2-1 in Segunda División on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Julio Lores Colán (Huaral).