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Union Huaral vs Juan Pablo II College — Segunda División 2018

Union Huaral
Union Huaral
CANC
00:00
Juan Pablo II College
Juan Pablo II College
7/14/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Union Huaral49%
×Draw27%
Juan Pablo II College24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Huaral
1.40
Juan Pablo II College
0.89

Union Huaral creates 57% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 12 away

creates per match

Union Huaral
1.63
Juan Pablo II College
0.67

allows per match

Union Huaral
1.10
Juan Pablo II College
1.17

finishing

Union Huaral+0.00on par
Juan Pablo II College+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Huaral ↓

Juan Pablo II College →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Union Huaral or draw
76%
Union Huaral or Juan Pablo II College
73%
Draw or Juan Pablo II College
51%

Winning margin

Union Huaral wins by 2+
24%
Juan Pablo II College wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Union Huaral 1+ goals
75%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
41%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
17%
Juan Pablo II College 1+ goals
59%
Juan Pablo II College 2+ goals
22%
Juan Pablo II College 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Union Huaral (draw refunded)
67%
Juan Pablo II College (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Huaral at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Juan Pablo II College away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Huaral attack 1.63 + Juan Pablo II College defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Juan Pablo II College attack 0.67 + Union Huaral defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Union Huaral scores more
49%
level
27%
Juan Pablo II College scores more
24%

Union Huaral at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Union Huaral host Juan Pablo II College

July 14, 2024: Union Huaral take on Juan Pablo II College in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.