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Union Huaral vs Deportivo Hualgayoc — Segunda División 2018

Union Huaral
Union Huaral
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Hualgayoc
Deportivo Hualgayoc
9/23/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 26Estadio Municipal Julio Lores Colán (Huaral)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Union Huaral48%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Hualgayoc29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Huaral
1.71
Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.27

Union Huaral creates 35% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 14 away

creates per match

Union Huaral
1.63
Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.43

allows per match

Union Huaral
1.10
Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.79

finishing

Union Huaral+0.00on par
Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Huaral ↓

Deportivo Hualgayoc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Union Huaral or draw
71%
Union Huaral or Deportivo Hualgayoc
76%
Draw or Deportivo Hualgayoc
52%

Winning margin

Union Huaral wins by 2+
25%
Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Union Huaral 1+ goals
82%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
51%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
24%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Union Huaral (draw refunded)
63%
Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Huaral at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Huaral attack 1.63 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 1.43 + Union Huaral defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Union Huaral scores more
48%
level
24%
Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more
29%

Union Huaral at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Union Huaral 1 – 1 Deportivo Hualgayoc

Union Huaral and Deportivo Hualgayoc drew 1-1 in Segunda División on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Julio Lores Colán (Huaral).