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Union Huaral vs Alfredo Salinas — Segunda División 2018

Union Huaral
Union Huaral
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Alfredo Salinas
Alfredo Salinas
6/24/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 12Estadio Rómulo Shaw Cisneros (Chancay)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Union Huaral69%
×Draw19%
Alfredo Salinas12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Huaral
2.17
Alfredo Salinas
0.77

Union Huaral creates 182% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 14 away

creates per match

Union Huaral
1.63
Alfredo Salinas
0.43

allows per match

Union Huaral
1.10
Alfredo Salinas
2.71

finishing

Union Huaral+0.00on par
Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Huaral ↓

Alfredo Salinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Union Huaral or draw
88%
Union Huaral or Alfredo Salinas
81%
Draw or Alfredo Salinas
31%

Winning margin

Union Huaral wins by 2+
45%
Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Union Huaral 1+ goals
89%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
64%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
36%
Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals
54%
Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals
18%
Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Union Huaral (draw refunded)
85%
Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Huaral at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Alfredo Salinas away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Huaral attack 1.63 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.17

Alfredo Salinas attack 0.43 + Union Huaral defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Union Huaral scores more
69%
level
19%
Alfredo Salinas scores more
12%

Union Huaral at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Huaral vs Alfredo Salinas

Union Huaral beat Alfredo Salinas 3-2 in Segunda División on June 24, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Rómulo Shaw Cisneros (Chancay).