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Union Huaral vs Alfonso Ugarte Puno — Segunda División 2018

Union Huaral
Union Huaral
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
5/24/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 7Estadio Rómulo Shaw Cisneros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Union Huaral58%
×Draw22%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Huaral
1.90
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
1.03

Union Huaral creates 84% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 25 away

creates per match

Union Huaral
1.63
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
0.96

allows per match

Union Huaral
1.10
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
2.16

finishing

Union Huaral+0.00on par
Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Huaral ↓

Alfonso Ugarte Puno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Union Huaral or draw
80%
Union Huaral or Alfonso Ugarte Puno
78%
Draw or Alfonso Ugarte Puno
42%

Winning margin

Union Huaral wins by 2+
34%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Union Huaral 1+ goals
85%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
56%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
29%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals
64%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals
28%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Union Huaral (draw refunded)
74%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Huaral at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Huaral attack 1.63 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.90

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 0.96 + Union Huaral defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Union Huaral scores more
58%
level
22%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more
20%

Union Huaral at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Union Huaral 1–1 Alfonso Ugarte Puno

Union Huaral and Alfonso Ugarte Puno drew 1-1 in Segunda División on May 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Rómulo Shaw Cisneros in Chancay.