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Union Henndorf vs Adnet — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Union Henndorf
Union Henndorf
FT
1 – 0
Adnet
Adnet
8/26/2023Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 5Sportplatz Henndorf am Wallersee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union Henndorf48%
×Draw23%
Adnet29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Henndorf
1.83
Adnet
1.39

Union Henndorf creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 52 away

creates per match

Union Henndorf
1.57
Adnet
1.21

allows per match

Union Henndorf
1.57
Adnet
2.08

finishing

Union Henndorf+0.00on par
Adnet+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Henndorf ↓

Adnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Union Henndorf or draw
71%
Union Henndorf or Adnet
77%
Draw or Adnet
52%

Winning margin

Union Henndorf wins by 2+
26%
Adnet wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Union Henndorf 1+ goals
84%
Union Henndorf 2+ goals
54%
Union Henndorf 3+ goals
28%
Adnet 1+ goals
75%
Adnet 2+ goals
40%
Adnet 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Union Henndorf (draw refunded)
62%
Adnet (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Henndorf at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Adnet away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.08 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Henndorf attack 1.57 + Adnet defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.83

Adnet attack 1.21 + Union Henndorf defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Union Henndorf scores more
48%
level
23%
Adnet scores more
29%

Union Henndorf at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Union Henndorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Henndorf vs Adnet

Union Henndorf beat Adnet 1-0 in Landesliga - Salzburg on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Henndorf am Wallersee in Henndorf.