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Union Frintrop vs TVD Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Union Frintrop
Union Frintrop
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
5/12/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 32Bezirkssportanlage am Wasserturm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Union Frintrop49%
×Draw21%
TVD Velbert30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Frintrop
2.04
TVD Velbert
1.55

Union Frintrop creates 32% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 72 away

creates per match

Union Frintrop
2.00
TVD Velbert
1.38

allows per match

Union Frintrop
1.73
TVD Velbert
2.07

finishing

Union Frintrop+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Frintrop ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Union Frintrop or draw
70%
Union Frintrop or TVD Velbert
79%
Draw or TVD Velbert
51%

Winning margin

Union Frintrop wins by 2+
28%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Union Frintrop 1+ goals
87%
Union Frintrop 2+ goals
60%
Union Frintrop 3+ goals
33%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
79%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
46%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Union Frintrop (draw refunded)
62%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Frintrop at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Frintrop attack 2.00 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.04

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + Union Frintrop defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Union Frintrop scores more
49%
level
21%
TVD Velbert scores more
30%

Union Frintrop at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Union Frintrop will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Frintrop vs TVD Velbert

Union Frintrop and TVD Velbert drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage am Wasserturm in Essen.