Union Frintrop 0–1 SW Essen: Result & Stats

Union Frintrop

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SW Essen

4/12/2026

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 27Bezirkssportanlage am Wasserturm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Union Frintrop40%

×Draw22%

SW Essen37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union FrintropExpected goals in this matchSW Essen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.73

Union Frintrop

1.81

SW Essen

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 91 away

2.00

creates per match

1.73

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Union Frintrop

2.00

SW Essen

1.73

allows per match

Union Frintrop

1.73

SW Essen

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Frintrop+0.00on par

SW Essen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Frintrop ↓

SW Essen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Union Frintrop or draw

63%

Union Frintrop or SW Essen

78%

Draw or SW Essen

60%

Winning margin

Union Frintrop wins by 2+

21%

SW Essen wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Union Frintrop 1+ goals

84%

Union Frintrop 2+ goals

54%

Union Frintrop 3+ goals

27%

SW Essen 1+ goals

82%

SW Essen 2+ goals

52%

SW Essen 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Union Frintrop (draw refunded)

52%

SW Essen (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Frintrop at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

SW Essen away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Frintrop attack 2.00 + SW Essen defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.81

SW Essen attack 1.73 + Union Frintrop defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Union Frintrop scores more

40%

level

22%

SW Essen scores more

37%

Union Frintrop at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union Frintrop will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff