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Union Frintrop vs SF Baumberg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Union Frintrop
Union Frintrop
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
SF Baumberg
SF Baumberg
3/3/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 21Bezirkssportanlage am Wasserturm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Union Frintrop42%
×Draw21%
SF Baumberg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Frintrop
1.96
SF Baumberg
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 95 away

creates per match

Union Frintrop
2.00
SF Baumberg
1.91

allows per match

Union Frintrop
1.73
SF Baumberg
1.93

finishing

Union Frintrop+0.00on par
SF Baumberg+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Frintrop ↓

SF Baumberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Union Frintrop or draw
63%
Union Frintrop or SF Baumberg
79%
Draw or SF Baumberg
58%

Winning margin

Union Frintrop wins by 2+
23%
SF Baumberg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Union Frintrop 1+ goals
86%
Union Frintrop 2+ goals
58%
Union Frintrop 3+ goals
31%
SF Baumberg 1+ goals
84%
SF Baumberg 2+ goals
54%
SF Baumberg 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Union Frintrop (draw refunded)
53%
SF Baumberg (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Frintrop at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

SF Baumberg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.93 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Frintrop attack 2.00 + SF Baumberg defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.96

SF Baumberg attack 1.91 + Union Frintrop defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Union Frintrop scores more
42%
level
21%
SF Baumberg scores more
37%

Union Frintrop at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Union Frintrop will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Union Frintrop 2–3 SF Baumberg

SF Baumberg beat Union Frintrop 3-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage am Wasserturm in Essen.