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Union Feltre vs Mestre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Union Feltre
Union Feltre
FT
2 – 1
Mestre
Mestre
10/26/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 10Stadio Zugni Tauro (Feltre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Union Feltre41%
×Draw33%
Mestre26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Feltre
1.02
Mestre
0.75

Union Feltre creates 36% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 101 away

creates per match

Union Feltre
0.86
Mestre
0.94

allows per match

Union Feltre
0.57
Mestre
1.19

finishing

Union Feltre+0.00on par
Mestre+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Feltre ↓

Mestre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Union Feltre or draw
74%
Union Feltre or Mestre
67%
Draw or Mestre
59%

Winning margin

Union Feltre wins by 2+
16%
Mestre wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Union Feltre 1+ goals
64%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
27%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
8%
Mestre 1+ goals
53%
Mestre 2+ goals
17%
Mestre 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Union Feltre (draw refunded)
61%
Mestre (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Feltre at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Mestre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Feltre attack 0.86 + Mestre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Mestre attack 0.94 + Union Feltre defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Union Feltre scores more
41%
level
33%
Mestre scores more
26%

Union Feltre at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Feltre vs Mestre

Union Feltre beat Mestre 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Zugni Tauro (Feltre).