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Union Feltre vs Legnago Salus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Union Feltre
Union Feltre
FT
2 – 0
Legnago Salus
Legnago Salus
9/29/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 6Stadio Zugni Tauro (Feltre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Union Feltre31%
×Draw29%
Legnago Salus40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Feltre
1.01
Legnago Salus
1.18

Legnago Salus creates 17% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 48 away

creates per match

Union Feltre
0.86
Legnago Salus
1.79

allows per match

Union Feltre
0.57
Legnago Salus
1.17

finishing

Union Feltre+0.00on par
Legnago Salus+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Feltre ↓

Legnago Salus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Union Feltre or draw
60%
Union Feltre or Legnago Salus
71%
Draw or Legnago Salus
69%

Winning margin

Union Feltre wins by 2+
12%
Legnago Salus wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Union Feltre 1+ goals
64%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
27%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
8%
Legnago Salus 1+ goals
69%
Legnago Salus 2+ goals
33%
Legnago Salus 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Union Feltre (draw refunded)
44%
Legnago Salus (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Feltre at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Legnago Salus away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Feltre attack 0.86 + Legnago Salus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Legnago Salus attack 1.79 + Union Feltre defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Union Feltre scores more
31%
level
29%
Legnago Salus scores more
40%

Legnago Salus at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Union Feltre 2–0 Legnago Salus

Union Feltre beat Legnago Salus 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Zugni Tauro (Feltre).