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Union Feltre vs Clodiense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Union Feltre
Union Feltre
FT
0 – 1
Clodiense
Clodiense
12/21/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 19Stadio Zugni Tauro (Feltre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Union Feltre32%
×Draw32%
Clodiense37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Feltre
0.91
Clodiense
1.00

Clodiense creates 10% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 82 away

creates per match

Union Feltre
0.86
Clodiense
1.44

allows per match

Union Feltre
0.57
Clodiense
0.95

finishing

Union Feltre+0.00on par
Clodiense+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Feltre ↓

Clodiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Union Feltre or draw
63%
Union Feltre or Clodiense
68%
Draw or Clodiense
68%

Winning margin

Union Feltre wins by 2+
11%
Clodiense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Union Feltre 1+ goals
60%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
23%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
6%
Clodiense 1+ goals
63%
Clodiense 2+ goals
26%
Clodiense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Union Feltre (draw refunded)
46%
Clodiense (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Feltre at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Clodiense away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Feltre attack 0.86 + Clodiense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Clodiense attack 1.44 + Union Feltre defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Union Feltre scores more
32%
level
32%
Clodiense scores more
37%

Clodiense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Feltre vs Clodiense

Clodiense beat Union Feltre 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Zugni Tauro (Feltre).