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Union Feltre vs Cjarlins Muzane — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Union Feltre
Union Feltre
FT
2 – 0
Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
11/24/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 15Stadio Zugni Tauro (Feltre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Union Feltre39%
×Draw32%
Cjarlins Muzane29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Feltre
1.04
Cjarlins Muzane
0.86

Union Feltre creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 101 away

creates per match

Union Feltre
0.86
Cjarlins Muzane
1.15

allows per match

Union Feltre
0.57
Cjarlins Muzane
1.23

finishing

Union Feltre+0.00on par
Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Feltre ↓

Cjarlins Muzane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Union Feltre or draw
71%
Union Feltre or Cjarlins Muzane
68%
Draw or Cjarlins Muzane
61%

Winning margin

Union Feltre wins by 2+
15%
Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Union Feltre 1+ goals
65%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
28%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
9%
Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
58%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
21%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Union Feltre (draw refunded)
57%
Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Feltre at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Cjarlins Muzane away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Feltre attack 0.86 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.15 + Union Feltre defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Union Feltre scores more
39%
level
32%
Cjarlins Muzane scores more
29%

Union Feltre at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Union Feltre 2–0 Cjarlins Muzane

Union Feltre beat Cjarlins Muzane 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Zugni Tauro (Feltre).