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Union Feltre vs Belluno — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Union Feltre
Union Feltre
FT
1 – 1
Belluno
Belluno
9/7/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 2Stadio Zugni Tauro (Feltre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Union Feltre44%
×Draw29%
Belluno28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Feltre
1.25
Belluno
0.93

Union Feltre creates 34% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Union Feltre
0.86
Belluno
1.29

allows per match

Union Feltre
0.57
Belluno
1.64

finishing

Union Feltre+0.00on par
Belluno+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Feltre ↓

Belluno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Union Feltre or draw
72%
Union Feltre or Belluno
71%
Draw or Belluno
56%

Winning margin

Union Feltre wins by 2+
20%
Belluno wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Union Feltre 1+ goals
71%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
36%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
13%
Belluno 1+ goals
61%
Belluno 2+ goals
24%
Belluno 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Union Feltre (draw refunded)
61%
Belluno (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Feltre at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Belluno away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Feltre attack 0.86 + Belluno defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.25

Belluno attack 1.29 + Union Feltre defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Union Feltre scores more
44%
level
29%
Belluno scores more
28%

Union Feltre at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Feltre vs Belluno

Union Feltre and Belluno drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Zugni Tauro (Feltre).