Union Espanola 3–0 Universidad de Chile

Union Espanola

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Universidad de Chile

R. Piñeiro 48', 43'

A. Uribe 38'

7/17/2023

Primera División · Round 17Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Union Espanola46%

×Draw23%

Universidad de Chile32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union EspanolaExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Chile

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.52

Union Espanola

1.85

Universidad de Chile

1.52

Union Espanola creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.05

creates per match

1.47

1.57

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Union Espanola

2.05

Universidad de Chile

1.47

allows per match

Union Espanola

1.57

Universidad de Chile

1.65

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Union Espanola+0.38scores more

Universidad de Chile-0.03on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Espanola ↓

Universidad de Chile →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Union Espanola or draw

68%

Union Espanola or Universidad de Chile

77%

Draw or Universidad de Chile

54%

Winning margin

Union Espanola wins by 2+

25%

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Union Espanola 1+ goals

84%

Union Espanola 2+ goals

55%

Union Espanola 3+ goals

28%

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

78%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

45%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Union Espanola (draw refunded)

59%

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Espanola at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.65 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Espanola attack 2.05 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.85

Universidad de Chile attack 1.47 + Union Espanola defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Union Espanola scores more

46%

level

23%

Universidad de Chile scores more

32%

Union Espanola at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

R. Piñeiro

Union Espanola · M

9.0

Match Events

38'

A. Uribe↳ R. Piñeiro

43'

R. Piñeiro↳ L. Garate

48'

R. Piñeiro↳ A. Uribe

52'

Sebastián Pérez

62'

R. Cecchini← R. Piñeiro

69'

R. Cordero← E. Ojeda

69'

L. Fernández← L. Assadi

78'

F. Massri← B. Yáñez

78'

D. Osorio← C. Palacios

81'

Leandro Fernández

87'

Y. Andía← J. Gómez

87'

J. Fuentealba← N. Domínguez

89'

V. Conelli← L. Garate

90'

G. Norambuena← A. Uribe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionUniversidad

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots17

0.89Expected Goals (xG)1.67

4Corners7

8Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots17

8On Target6

3Off Target6

2Blocked5

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box10

Passing

50%Possession50%

399Total Passes387

312Accurate Passes271

78%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3