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Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo — Primera División 2018

Union Espanola
Union Espanola
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Deportes Copiapo
Deportes Copiapo
F. Frías 65'
S. Magnasco 56'
F. Ovelar 35', 21'
P. Aránguiz 28'
M. Quinteros 84'
Y. González 55'
D. García 18'
4/21/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 9Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union Espanola53%
×Draw23%
Deportes Copiapo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Espanola
1.80
Deportes Copiapo
1.11

Union Espanola creates 62% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 30 away

creates per match

Union Espanola
1.68
Deportes Copiapo
0.80

allows per match

Union Espanola
1.42
Deportes Copiapo
1.93

finishing

Union Espanola+0.00on par
Deportes Copiapo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Espanola ↓

Deportes Copiapo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Union Espanola or draw
77%
Union Espanola or Deportes Copiapo
77%
Draw or Deportes Copiapo
47%

Winning margin

Union Espanola wins by 2+
30%
Deportes Copiapo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Union Espanola 1+ goals
83%
Union Espanola 2+ goals
54%
Union Espanola 3+ goals
27%
Deportes Copiapo 1+ goals
67%
Deportes Copiapo 2+ goals
30%
Deportes Copiapo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Union Espanola (draw refunded)
70%
Deportes Copiapo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Espanola at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Deportes Copiapo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Espanola attack 1.68 + Deportes Copiapo defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.80

Deportes Copiapo attack 0.80 + Union Espanola defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Union Espanola scores more
53%
level
23%
Deportes Copiapo scores more
23%

Union Espanola at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Union Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34
F. OvelarUnion EspanolaUnion Espanola · F
9.0

Match Events

18'
D. García↳ J. Luna
21'
F. Ovelar↳ D. González
26'
Juan Jose Jaime
28'
P. Aránguiz
35'
F. Ovelar↳ P. Aránguiz
46'
F. Torres← L. Pais
46'
Y. González← J. Gaete
55'
Y. González↳ F. Torres
56'
S. Magnasco
65'
F. Frías↳ F. Ovelar
66'
I. Díaz← T. Figueroa
66'
M. Quinteros← B. Soto
75'
B. Yáñez← F. Ovelar
76'
Diego García
82'
G. Norambuena← F. Frías
82'
B. Carvallo← A. Uribe
82'
B. Jáuregui← D. González
84'
M. Quinteros↳ J. Luna
90+5'
Diego García
90+3'
Alvaro Cazula
90+5'
Diego García
90+1'
L. Pavez← S. Magnasco

Possession

57%Union

Shots

16Union

Pass accuracy

53%Union

Statistics

UnionDeportes
Overview
57%Possession43%
16Total Shots14
6Corners5
5Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots14
6On Target4
7Off Target5
3Blocked5
11Inside Box8
5Outside Box6
Passing
57%Possession43%
413Total Passes311
318Accurate Passes213
77%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
5Fouls13
0Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo

Union Espanola beat Deportes Copiapo 5-3 in Primera División on April 21, 2024.

Goals: D. García (18'), F. Ovelar (21', 35'), P. Aránguiz (28'), Y. González (55'), S. Magnasco (56'), F. Frías (65'), M. Quinteros (84').

Union Espanola controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Santiago de Chile.