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Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido — Primera División 2018

Union Espanola
Union Espanola
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
3/2/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 3Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Union Espanola42%
×Draw25%
Coquimbo Unido32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Espanola
1.51
Coquimbo Unido
1.29

Union Espanola creates 17% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 97 away

creates per match

Union Espanola
1.64
Coquimbo Unido
1.13

allows per match

Union Espanola
1.46
Coquimbo Unido
1.38

finishing

Union Espanola+0.00on par
Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Espanola ↓

Coquimbo Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Union Espanola or draw
68%
Union Espanola or Coquimbo Unido
75%
Draw or Coquimbo Unido
58%

Winning margin

Union Espanola wins by 2+
21%
Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Union Espanola 1+ goals
78%
Union Espanola 2+ goals
44%
Union Espanola 3+ goals
19%
Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
72%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
37%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Union Espanola (draw refunded)
57%
Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Espanola at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.46 · 121 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Espanola attack 1.64 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.13 + Union Espanola defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Union Espanola scores more
42%
level
25%
Coquimbo Unido scores more
32%

Union Espanola at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Union Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Union Espanola 1–0 Coquimbo Unido

Union Espanola beat Coquimbo Unido 1-0 in Primera División on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Santiago de Chile.