Union Espanola 2–0 Barnechea: Result & Stats

Union Espanola

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barnechea

6/30/2023

Copa Chile · Regional Quarter-finalsEstadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Union Espanola48%

×Draw22%

Barnechea30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union EspanolaExpected goals in this matchBarnechea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.46

Union Espanola

1.91

Barnechea

1.46

Union Espanola creates 31% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

1.71

creates per match

1.67

1.24

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Union Espanola

1.71

Barnechea

1.67

allows per match

Union Espanola

1.24

Barnechea

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Espanola+0.00on par

Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Espanola ↓

Barnechea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Union Espanola or draw

70%

Union Espanola or Barnechea

78%

Draw or Barnechea

52%

Winning margin

Union Espanola wins by 2+

27%

Barnechea wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Union Espanola 1+ goals

85%

Union Espanola 2+ goals

57%

Union Espanola 3+ goals

30%

Barnechea 1+ goals

77%

Barnechea 2+ goals

43%

Barnechea 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Union Espanola (draw refunded)

62%

Barnechea (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Espanola at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Espanola attack 1.71 + Barnechea defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.91

Barnechea attack 1.67 + Union Espanola defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Union Espanola scores more

48%

level

22%

Barnechea scores more

30%

Union Espanola at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Union Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff