Union Edelweiß 2–0 Wels: Result & Stats

Union Edelweiß

FT

2 – 0

Wels

4/19/2024

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 23Unionplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Union Edelweiß75%

×Draw14%

Wels10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union EdelweißExpected goals in this matchWels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.87

0.98

Union Edelweiß

2.87

Wels

0.98

Union Edelweiß creates 193% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 29 away

2.01

creates per match

0.59

1.38

allows per match

3.72

creates per match

Union Edelweiß

2.01

Wels

0.59

allows per match

Union Edelweiß

1.38

Wels

3.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Edelweiß+0.00on par

Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Edelweiß ↓

Wels →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Union Edelweiß or draw

90%

Union Edelweiß or Wels

86%

Draw or Wels

25%

Winning margin

Union Edelweiß wins by 2+

55%

Wels wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Union Edelweiß 1+ goals

94%

Union Edelweiß 2+ goals

77%

Union Edelweiß 3+ goals

53%

Wels 1+ goals

62%

Wels 2+ goals

26%

Wels 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Union Edelweiß (draw refunded)

88%

Wels (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Edelweiß at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

Wels away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Edelweiß attack 2.01 + Wels defence 3.72 → ÷2 → 2.87

Wels attack 0.59 + Union Edelweiß defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Union Edelweiß scores more

75%

level

14%

Wels scores more

10%

Union Edelweiß at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Union Edelweiß will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff