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Union Edelweiß vs Union St. Florian — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union Edelweiß
Union Edelweiß
FT
3 – 0
Union St. Florian
Union St. Florian
3/4/2022Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 16Unionplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Union Edelweiß55%
×Draw22%
Union St. Florian23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Edelweiß
2.00
Union St. Florian
1.24

Union Edelweiß creates 61% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 29 away

creates per match

Union Edelweiß
2.01
Union St. Florian
1.10

allows per match

Union Edelweiß
1.38
Union St. Florian
2.00

finishing

Union Edelweiß+0.00on par
Union St. Florian+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Edelweiß ↓

Union St. Florian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Union Edelweiß or draw
77%
Union Edelweiß or Union St. Florian
78%
Draw or Union St. Florian
45%

Winning margin

Union Edelweiß wins by 2+
32%
Union St. Florian wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Union Edelweiß 1+ goals
86%
Union Edelweiß 2+ goals
59%
Union Edelweiß 3+ goals
32%
Union St. Florian 1+ goals
71%
Union St. Florian 2+ goals
35%
Union St. Florian 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Union Edelweiß (draw refunded)
70%
Union St. Florian (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Edelweiß at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

Union St. Florian away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Edelweiß attack 2.01 + Union St. Florian defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Union St. Florian attack 1.10 + Union Edelweiß defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Union Edelweiß scores more
55%
level
22%
Union St. Florian scores more
23%

Union Edelweiß at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Union Edelweiß will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Union Edelweiß 3–0 Union St. Florian

Union Edelweiß beat Union St. Florian 3-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 4, 2022.

The match was played at Unionplatz in Linz.