Union Edelweiß 1–0 Grün Weiß Micheldorf

Union Edelweiß

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Grün Weiß Micheldorf

8/22/2025

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 4JAZ LINZ SÜD Edelweiß

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Union Edelweiß53%

×Draw21%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union EdelweißExpected goals in this matchGrün Weiß Micheldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.37

Union Edelweiß

2.06

Grün Weiß Micheldorf

1.37

Union Edelweiß creates 50% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 89 away

2.01

creates per match

1.36

1.38

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Union Edelweiß

2.01

Grün Weiß Micheldorf

1.36

allows per match

Union Edelweiß

1.38

Grün Weiß Micheldorf

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Edelweiß+0.00on par

Grün Weiß Micheldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Edelweiß ↓

Grün Weiß Micheldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Union Edelweiß or draw

75%

Union Edelweiß or Grün Weiß Micheldorf

79%

Draw or Grün Weiß Micheldorf

47%

Winning margin

Union Edelweiß wins by 2+

31%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Union Edelweiß 1+ goals

87%

Union Edelweiß 2+ goals

61%

Union Edelweiß 3+ goals

34%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf 1+ goals

75%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf 2+ goals

40%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Union Edelweiß (draw refunded)

68%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Edelweiß at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

Grün Weiß Micheldorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.12 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Edelweiß attack 2.01 + Grün Weiß Micheldorf defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.06

Grün Weiß Micheldorf attack 1.36 + Union Edelweiß defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Union Edelweiß scores more

53%

level

21%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf scores more

25%

Union Edelweiß at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Union Edelweiß will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff