Union Edelweiß 2–2 Donau Linz: Result & Stats

Union Edelweiß

FT

2 – 2

Donau Linz

10/2/2020

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 9Unionplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union Edelweiß64%

×Draw18%

Donau Linz18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union EdelweißExpected goals in this matchDonau Linz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.21

Union Edelweiß

2.44

Donau Linz

1.21

Union Edelweiß creates 102% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 30 away

2.01

creates per match

1.03

1.38

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Union Edelweiß

2.01

Donau Linz

1.03

allows per match

Union Edelweiß

1.38

Donau Linz

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Edelweiß+0.00on par

Donau Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Edelweiß ↓

Donau Linz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Union Edelweiß or draw

82%

Union Edelweiß or Donau Linz

82%

Draw or Donau Linz

36%

Winning margin

Union Edelweiß wins by 2+

42%

Donau Linz wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Union Edelweiß 1+ goals

91%

Union Edelweiß 2+ goals

70%

Union Edelweiß 3+ goals

43%

Donau Linz 1+ goals

70%

Donau Linz 2+ goals

34%

Donau Linz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Union Edelweiß (draw refunded)

78%

Donau Linz (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Edelweiß at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

Donau Linz away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Edelweiß attack 2.01 + Donau Linz defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.44

Donau Linz attack 1.03 + Union Edelweiß defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Union Edelweiß scores more

64%

level

18%

Donau Linz scores more

18%

Union Edelweiß at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Union Edelweiß will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff