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Union Douala vs Unisport Bafang — Elite One 2019

Union Douala
Union Douala
FT
1 – 0
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
5/22/2019Elite OneElite One · Relegation Round - 1Limbe Centenary Stadium (Limbe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Union Douala43%
×Draw28%
Unisport Bafang29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Douala
1.33
Unisport Bafang
1.04

Union Douala creates 28% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 21 away

creates per match

Union Douala
1.00
Unisport Bafang
1.10

allows per match

Union Douala
0.99
Unisport Bafang
1.67

finishing

Union Douala+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Douala ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Union Douala or draw
71%
Union Douala or Unisport Bafang
72%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
57%

Winning margin

Union Douala wins by 2+
20%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Union Douala 1+ goals
74%
Union Douala 2+ goals
38%
Union Douala 3+ goals
15%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
65%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
28%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Union Douala (draw refunded)
60%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Douala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Douala attack 1.00 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Unisport Bafang attack 1.10 + Union Douala defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Union Douala scores more
43%
level
28%
Unisport Bafang scores more
29%

Union Douala at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Union Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Union Douala 1–0 Unisport Bafang

Union Douala beat Unisport Bafang 1-0 in Elite One on May 22, 2019.

The match was played at Limbe Centenary Stadium (Limbe).