Union Douala 1–2 Tonnerre: Result & Stats

Union Douala

FT

1 – 2

Tonnerre

3/24/2019

Elite One · Round 10Limbe Centenary Stadium (Limbe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Union Douala45%

×Draw28%

Tonnerre27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union DoualaExpected goals in this matchTonnerre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.93

Union Douala

1.29

Tonnerre

0.93

Union Douala creates 39% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

0.86

0.99

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Union Douala

1.00

Tonnerre

0.86

allows per match

Union Douala

0.99

Tonnerre

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Douala+0.00on par

Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Douala ↓

Tonnerre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Union Douala or draw

73%

Union Douala or Tonnerre

72%

Draw or Tonnerre

55%

Winning margin

Union Douala wins by 2+

20%

Tonnerre wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Union Douala 1+ goals

72%

Union Douala 2+ goals

37%

Union Douala 3+ goals

14%

Tonnerre 1+ goals

61%

Tonnerre 2+ goals

24%

Tonnerre 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Union Douala (draw refunded)

63%

Tonnerre (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Douala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Douala attack 1.00 + Tonnerre defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tonnerre attack 0.86 + Union Douala defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Union Douala scores more

45%

level

28%

Tonnerre scores more

27%

Union Douala at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Union Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff