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Union Douala vs PWD Bamenda — Elite One 2019

Union Douala
Union Douala
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
11/5/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 6Stade de la Réunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Union Douala37%
×Draw30%
PWD Bamenda33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Douala
1.09
PWD Bamenda
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 99 away

creates per match

Union Douala
1.00
PWD Bamenda
1.01

allows per match

Union Douala
0.99
PWD Bamenda
1.18

finishing

Union Douala+0.00on par
PWD Bamenda+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Douala ↓

PWD Bamenda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Union Douala or draw
67%
Union Douala or PWD Bamenda
70%
Draw or PWD Bamenda
63%

Winning margin

Union Douala wins by 2+
15%
PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Union Douala 1+ goals
66%
Union Douala 2+ goals
30%
Union Douala 3+ goals
10%
PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
63%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
26%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Union Douala (draw refunded)
53%
PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Douala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

PWD Bamenda away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.18 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Douala attack 1.00 + PWD Bamenda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

PWD Bamenda attack 1.01 + Union Douala defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Union Douala scores more
37%
level
30%
PWD Bamenda scores more
33%

Union Douala at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Union Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Douala vs PWD Bamenda

Union Douala and PWD Bamenda drew 1-1 in Elite One on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Réunification in Douala.