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Union Douala vs Panthère — Elite One 2019

Union Douala
Union Douala
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Panthère
Panthère
5/21/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 24Stade de Bonamoussadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Union Douala37%
×Draw31%
Panthère32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Douala
1.02
Panthère
0.92

Union Douala creates 11% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 64 away

creates per match

Union Douala
1.00
Panthère
0.84

allows per match

Union Douala
0.99
Panthère
1.05

finishing

Union Douala+0.00on par
Panthère+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Douala ↓

Panthère →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Union Douala or draw
68%
Union Douala or Panthère
69%
Draw or Panthère
63%

Winning margin

Union Douala wins by 2+
14%
Panthère wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Union Douala 1+ goals
64%
Union Douala 2+ goals
27%
Union Douala 3+ goals
8%
Panthère 1+ goals
60%
Panthère 2+ goals
23%
Panthère 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Union Douala (draw refunded)
54%
Panthère (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Douala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Panthère away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Douala attack 1.00 + Panthère defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Panthère attack 0.84 + Union Douala defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Union Douala scores more
37%
level
31%
Panthère scores more
32%

Union Douala at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Union Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Douala vs Panthère

Union Douala and Panthère drew 0-0 in Elite One on May 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de Bonamoussadi in Douala.