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Union Douala vs Colombe — Elite One 2019

Union Douala
Union Douala
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Colombe
Colombe
12/13/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 11Stade Annexe de la Reunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Union Douala32%
×Draw30%
Colombe38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Douala
0.97
Colombe
1.08

Colombe creates 11% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 92 away

creates per match

Union Douala
1.00
Colombe
1.18

allows per match

Union Douala
0.99
Colombe
0.93

finishing

Union Douala+0.00on par
Colombe+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Douala ↓

Colombe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Union Douala or draw
62%
Union Douala or Colombe
70%
Draw or Colombe
68%

Winning margin

Union Douala wins by 2+
12%
Colombe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Union Douala 1+ goals
62%
Union Douala 2+ goals
25%
Union Douala 3+ goals
7%
Colombe 1+ goals
66%
Colombe 2+ goals
29%
Colombe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Union Douala (draw refunded)
46%
Colombe (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Douala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Colombe away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Douala attack 1.00 + Colombe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Colombe attack 1.18 + Union Douala defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Union Douala scores more
32%
level
30%
Colombe scores more
38%

Colombe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Douala vs Colombe

Colombe beat Union Douala 2-1 in Elite One on December 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Annexe de la Reunification in Douala.