Union Douala 2–1 Avion Academy: Result & Stats

Union Douala

FT

2 – 1

Avion Academy

11/6/2019

Elite One · Round 5Yong Sports Academy Complex Bamenda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Union Douala41%

×Draw30%

Avion Academy29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union DoualaExpected goals in this matchAvion Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.91

Union Douala

1.13

Avion Academy

0.91

Union Douala creates 24% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 67 away

1.00

creates per match

0.82

0.99

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Union Douala

1.00

Avion Academy

0.82

allows per match

Union Douala

0.99

Avion Academy

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Douala+0.00on par

Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Douala ↓

Avion Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Union Douala or draw

71%

Union Douala or Avion Academy

70%

Draw or Avion Academy

59%

Winning margin

Union Douala wins by 2+

17%

Avion Academy wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union Douala 1+ goals

68%

Union Douala 2+ goals

31%

Union Douala 3+ goals

11%

Avion Academy 1+ goals

60%

Avion Academy 2+ goals

23%

Avion Academy 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Union Douala (draw refunded)

58%

Avion Academy (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Douala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Douala attack 1.00 + Avion Academy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Avion Academy attack 0.82 + Union Douala defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Union Douala scores more

41%

level

30%

Avion Academy scores more

29%

Union Douala at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff