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ASA vs Petro de Luanda — Girabola 2012

ASA
ASA
FT
0 – 0
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
3/24/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 4Estádio Cidade Universitária

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ASA13%
×Draw24%
Petro de Luanda63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASA
0.61
Petro de Luanda
1.67

Petro de Luanda creates 174% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 105 away

creates per match

ASA
0.64
Petro de Luanda
1.79

allows per match

ASA
1.55
Petro de Luanda
0.58

finishing

ASA+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASA ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–117%
0–214%
0–38%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

ASA or draw
37%
ASA or Petro de Luanda
76%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
87%

Winning margin

ASA wins by 2+
3%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

ASA 1+ goals
46%
ASA 2+ goals
13%
ASA 3+ goals
2%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
81%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
50%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

ASA (draw refunded)
17%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASA at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.58 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASA attack 0.64 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.61

Petro de Luanda attack 1.79 + ASA defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

ASA scores more
13%
level
24%
Petro de Luanda scores more
63%

Petro de Luanda at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASA vs Petro de Luanda

ASA and Petro de Luanda drew 0-0 in Girabola on March 24, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio Cidade Universitária.