Petro de Luanda 3–0 ASA: Result & Stats | Girabola

Petro de Luanda

FT

3 – 0

ASA

4/24/2019

Girabola · Round 27Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros (Luanda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Petro de Luanda67%

×Draw24%

ASA9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petro de LuandaExpected goals in this matchASA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.43

Petro de Luanda

1.62

ASA

0.43

Petro de Luanda creates 277% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 18 away

2.02

creates per match

0.44

0.42

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Petro de Luanda

2.02

ASA

0.44

allows per match

Petro de Luanda

0.42

ASA

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

ASA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw

91%

Petro de Luanda or ASA

76%

Draw or ASA

33%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+

38%

ASA wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals

80%

Petro de Luanda 2+ goals

48%

Petro de Luanda 3+ goals

22%

ASA 1+ goals

35%

ASA 2+ goals

7%

ASA 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)

88%

ASA (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.42 · 112 matches

ASA away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 2.02 + ASA defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.62

ASA attack 0.44 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more

67%

level

24%

ASA scores more

9%

Petro de Luanda at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff