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Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso — Primera B Metropolitana 2017

Defensores De Belgrano
Defensores De Belgrano
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Acassuso
Acassuso
F. Vazzoler 59'
F. Enrique 37'
L. Goux 36' (OG)
9/13/2017Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Round 3Estadio Juan Pasquale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Defensores De Belgrano42%
×Draw34%
Acassuso24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores De Belgrano
0.98
Acassuso
0.65

Defensores De Belgrano creates 51% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 27 away

creates per match

Defensores De Belgrano
0.75
Acassuso
1.04

allows per match

Defensores De Belgrano
0.25
Acassuso
1.22

finishing

Defensores De Belgrano+0.00on par
Acassuso+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores De Belgrano ↓

Acassuso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Defensores De Belgrano or draw
76%
Defensores De Belgrano or Acassuso
66%
Draw or Acassuso
58%

Winning margin

Defensores De Belgrano wins by 2+
16%
Acassuso wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Defensores De Belgrano 1+ goals
62%
Defensores De Belgrano 2+ goals
26%
Defensores De Belgrano 3+ goals
8%
Acassuso 1+ goals
48%
Acassuso 2+ goals
14%
Acassuso 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Defensores De Belgrano (draw refunded)
64%
Acassuso (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores De Belgrano at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Acassuso away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores De Belgrano attack 0.75 + Acassuso defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.98

Acassuso attack 1.04 + Defensores De Belgrano defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Defensores De Belgrano scores more
42%
level
34%
Acassuso scores more
24%

Defensores De Belgrano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Defensores De Belgrano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
L. GouxOwn goal
37'
F. Enrique
59'
F. Vazzoler

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Defensores De Belgrano 2 – 1 Acassuso

Defensores De Belgrano beat Acassuso 2-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on September 13, 2017.

Goals: L. Goux (36' o.g.), F. Enrique (37'), F. Vazzoler (59').

The match was played at Estadio Juan Pasquale in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.