Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sagrada Esperança vs Nacional de Benguela — Girabola 2012

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
0 – 0
Nacional de Benguela
Nacional de Benguela
8/18/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 22Estádio de São Filipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sagrada Esperança46%
×Draw35%
Nacional de Benguela19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
0.99
Nacional de Benguela
0.53

Sagrada Esperança creates 87% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.24
Nacional de Benguela
0.25

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.82
Nacional de Benguela
0.75

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
Nacional de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Nacional de Benguela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–112%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
81%
Sagrada Esperança or Nacional de Benguela
65%
Draw or Nacional de Benguela
54%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
18%
Nacional de Benguela wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
63%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
26%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
8%
Nacional de Benguela 1+ goals
41%
Nacional de Benguela 2+ goals
10%
Nacional de Benguela 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
70%
Nacional de Benguela (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Nacional de Benguela away — creates 0.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.24 + Nacional de Benguela defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.99

Nacional de Benguela attack 0.25 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
46%
level
35%
Nacional de Benguela scores more
19%

Sagrada Esperança at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sagrada Esperança 0–0 Nacional de Benguela

Sagrada Esperança and Nacional de Benguela drew 0-0 in Girabola on August 18, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio de São Filipe.